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Early Grain Outlook, 12-30-16

FIRST LOOK, by Duane Lowry
Friday, December 30, 2016

**Publishing Note>
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Duane Lowry
Phone or text= 563-419-1300

At 5:20 am> Grain/Soy Snapshots: Corn= 1 3/4 lower,     Wheat= 1 1/4 higher,     Soybeans= 1/2 higher.

*Where are we for the WEEK?
(As of yesterday’s settlements.) March Wheat= up 11 1/4 cents, March Corn= up 4 cents, March Soybeans= up 15 1/4 cents, Crude Oil= up $0.75, Gold= up $24.50, Dow Index= down 115, US Dollar Index= down 29.

Day Session Expectations vs Night Session Tone:
March Corn: Support= $3.48-50,    Resistance= $3.70.
*Probes below $3.50 will be well supported. Search for ownership opportunities.                                      
March Soybeans: Support= $10.00-10,     Resistance= $10.45.
*Support and buying interest will build above $10.00. Probes below $10.10 need to be searched for ownership opportunities.                                     
March Wheat: Support= $4.00-05,    Resistance= $4.35.
*Support will surface on probes towards $4.00, basis March. Search for ownership opportunities.             

Outside Market Influences:
At 5:19 am> Price Snapshots: Crude was up $0.02, Gold up $2.10, Dow Index was up 27 and the US $ Index was down 41.
*Crude oil will stall out at current values and build trending lower action in the weeks ahead. Current levels offer selling opportunities.                                    
*Gold short-term corrective strength is nearing its end and gains of the past several days are likely to be eclipsed in the days/weeks ahead. Recent buyers should be taking profits. Longer-term activity may still hold price erosion potential below recent lows.                   
*US Dollar Index short-term weakness targets and key support levels were achieved overnight. Overall conditions suggest a firmer bias in the weeks ahead and probably more upside probing above recent highs.                                                                                     
*Dow Index is finalizing/confirming the process of establishing a major and long-lasting top. Charts appear very vulnerable to downside risks, with upside potential limited. Focus on selling opportunities.   

Weather offers favorable/acceptable South American conditions. Dryness themes for the US Plains remain.                 
Wheat fundamental storylines are bearish, fully known and fully discounted. News is stale. The unknown fundamental factors are of far more interest to me at this time. I see merit in wanting to own the unknown. Short and longer-term technical support exists at current values, which will limit the scope and sustainability of any near-term weakness. Focus on ownership opportunities.                        

Corn news is stale. Charts are constructive. Support will continue to surface on any probes below $3.50, basis March, limiting any ability to build much downside momentum. The Short and longer-term technical structure has the potential to build upside momentum during the next several weeks. Users have ample reasons to seek ownership. Producers have little incentive to make sales. I have no interest in any bearish stance. Search for ownership opportunities. Upside potential could be 30+ cents from current values.                             

Soybeans will find good technical support on probes into the $10.00-10 zone, basis March. Fundamental discussions are all bearish. Search near-term weakness for ownership opportunities.                                         

In summary, near-term weakness is unlikely to build/sustain much downside energy. Search for ownership opportunities.                                                           

Barge Values: Dec= +38 H
CH: Support= 3.48-50,    Resistance= 3.70

**PROFILE: March Corn> Probes below $3.50 will be well supported. Upside target is something into the $3.80 zone. IN SUMMARY, focus on ownership opportunities, as upside potential is greater than current/recent discouraged sentiment suggests.              

Barge Values: Dec= +45 F
SH: Support= 10.00-10,  Resistance= 10.45
SMH: Support= 317,  Resistance= 330
BOH: Support= 34.50,  Resistance= 37.00

**PROFILE: March Soybeans> A test/probe of support around $10.10 will unearth buying interest. Search for ownership opportunities. IN SUMMARY, I have no interest in any bearish stance, despite bearish fundamental profiles.  Search for ownership opportunities.                                                

Barge SRW Values: Dec= +34 H
WH: Support= 4.00-05,  Resistance= 4.35
**PROFILE: Chicago March Wheat> Technical conditions are capable of building upside momentum in the weeks ahead. Search minor near-term weakness for ownership opportunities. IN SUMMARY, search for ownership opportunities.           


The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account.

This newsletter is prepared from information believed to be reliable. Early Market News, Inc. does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice.
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